It is now well know that the handbook electronics reliability prediction methods (Mil-Hdbk-217, 217-Plus, Bellcore / Telcordia, PRISM, FIDES) are misleading and provide erroneous life predictions, a fact that led the U.S. military and many commercial companies to abandon these reliability prediction methods. Although the use of stress and damage models permits a more accurate result, their application to long-term reliability predictions based on extrapolated short-term life testing data or field data, is typically constrained by insufficient knowledge of the actual operating and environmental application conditions of the product.
It is now understood that a physics-of-failure based prognostics and health management approach would enable better reliability prediction. Prognostics and health management is a method that permits the assessment of the reliability of a system under its actual application conditions. It integrates sensor data with models that enable in-situ assessment of the deviation or degradation of a product from an expected normal operating condition (i.e., the system's "health") and also predict the future state of reliability based on current and historic conditions. The Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE) at the University Of Maryland has now established a Prognostics and Health Management Consortium to provide basic research and technology to members.
The three main approaches for electronic products include: the use of expendable devices, such as "canaries" and fuses that fail earlier than the host product to provide advance warning of failure; the monitoring and reasoning of parameters that are precursors to impending failure, such as shifts in performance parameters; and the modeling of stress and damage utilizing life cycle loads (e.g., usage, temperature, vibration, radiation). Various studies have been conducted to implement prognostics for electronics and they are summarized in this presentation. These studies cover all types of electronics, ranging from components and boards to electronic products and systems.
Some important frameworks and insights that have been developed in recent yours are described in this talk. As will become clear, however, researchers and practitioners have not yet been able to develop a desirable state of understanding. Recycling, therefore, is a real challenge for supply chain management. Given the interdisciplinary scope of affairs, practitioners and academics might benefit from various forms of cooperation for developing suitable approaches to meeting this challenge.
Michael Pecht has a BS in Acoustics, an MS in Electrical Engineering and an MS and PhD in Engineering Mechanics from the University of Wisconsin at Madison. He is a Professional Engineer, an IEEE Fellow and an ASME Fellow. He has received the 3M Research Award for electronics packaging, the IEEE Undergraduate Teaching Award, and the IMAPS William D. Ashman Memorial Achievement Award for his contributions in electronics reliability analysis. He has written eighteen books on electronic products development, use and supply chain management. He served as chief editor of the IEEE Transactions on Reliability for eight years and on the advisory board of IEEE Spectrum. He is chief editor for Microelectronics Reliability and an associate editor for the IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technology. He is the founder of CALCE (Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering) and the Electronic Products and Systems Consortium at the University of Maryland. He is also a Chair Professor. He has been leading a research team in the area of prognostics for the past six years, and has now formed a new Electronics Prognostics and Health Management Consortium at the University of Maryland. He has consulted for over 50 major international electronics companies, providing expertise in strategic planning, design, test, prognostics, IP and risk assessment of electronic products and systems.
|Date:||3 August 2007 (Friday)|
|Time:||10:00am – 12:00nn|
|Venue:||Rm B6605, 6/F, Lift 3, Academic Bldg, City University of Hong Kong,
83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Kowloon,