We employ human migration data to provide information on intercity travel that is crucial to the transmission of the new coronavirus disease from its epicentre Wuhan to other parts of China. Our model for the disease spreading is essentially the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, with intercity travel data supplying the essential information about the number of infected, exposed and recovered individuals moving between different cities. All parameters of the model, including infection rates, recovery rates, and eventual percentage of infected population for 367 cities in China, are identified by fitting the official data with the model using a constrained nonlinear programming procedure. Using these parameters, estimates of the number of exposed individuals in 367 cities as well as projections into the next 150 days are also found.
*Our findings are based on data provided by National Commission of Health of China.
Predictons for Chinese cities (Feb 18, 2020):
For details of the predicted progressions for cities in China, please refer to our paper.